Daily Archives: August 27, 2018

Selon PRB, la Terre comptera 2,3 milliards d’habitants en plus d’ici à 2050

WASHINGTON, 27 août 2018 /PRNewswire/ — La population mondiale atteindra 9,9 milliards d’ici à 2050, soit une progression de 2,3 milliards ou de 29 pour cent par rapport au chiffre actuel estimé à 7,6 milliards, selon les projections de Population Reference Bureau (PRB) dans son World Population Data Sheet 2018 publié aujourd’hui.

Parallèlement, la population mondiale continuera de vieillir, mais avec de manière différente en fonction des pays. D’ici au milieu du siècle, 16 pour cent de la population mondiale seront âgés de 65 ans et plus, soit une progression de 9 pour cent par rapport à aujourd’hui. La proportion de personnes situées dans cette tranche d’âge dans les pays plus développés dans le monde atteindra 27 pour cent, soit une progression de 18 pour cent par rapport à aujourd’hui, tandis que la proportion d’adultes âgés de 65 ans et plus dans les pays moins développés doublera pour atteindre 14 pour cent.

L’évolution de la structure par tranche d’âge, ou la part de la population totale dans chaque tranche d’âge, influencera les trajectoires économiques des pays et la manière dont ils allouent des ressources pour s’assurer que toutes les générations peuvent prospérer. Ce sont les thèmes explorés dans les rubriques analytiques du Data Sheet 2018.

Selon les estimations de PRB, l’indice synthétique de fécondité (ISF ou le nombre moyen d’enfants par femme tout au long de sa vie) dans le monde est de 2,4 pour 2018 ; l’ISF mondial est en recul depuis ces dernières décennies, mais il demeure suffisamment élevé pour générer une croissance démographique continue. Les trois pays présentant l’ISF le plus élevé sont le Niger (7,2), le Tchad (6,4) et la République démocratique du Congo (6,3), tandis que les pays qui présentent l’ISF le plus bas sont la Corée du Sud (1,1), Singapour (1,2) et Taïwan (1,2).

Selon les projections de PRB, la population d’Afrique fera plus que doubler d’ici 2050 pour atteindre 2,6 milliards, et elle comptera pour 58 pour cent de la croissance démographique mondiale d’ici là. Le nombre de personnes en Asie devrait augmenter d’environ 717 millions pour atteindre 5,3 milliards, tandis que l’Europe (y compris toute la Russie) verra sa population reculer de 746 millions à 730 millions. Dans les Amériques, la population devrait progresser de 1 milliard aujourd’hui à 1,2 milliard, et la population d’Océanie (qui comprend l’Australie et la Nouvelle-Zélande) devrait passer de 41 à 64 millions.

Depuis 1962, PRB produit chaque année son World Population Data Sheet (www.worldpopdata.org) qui est souvent référencé.

Contact : Peter Goldstein: datasheet@prb.org; tél. : 1.202.939.5407
Images et graphiques : https://spark.adobe.com/page/73lXWbgFnO7Nz

PRB Projects 2.3 Billion More People on Earth by 2050

WASHINGTON, Aug. 27, 2018 /PRNewswire/ — The world population will reach 9.9 billion by 2050, up 2.3 billion or 29 percent from an estimated 7.6 billion people now, according to projections by Population Reference Bureau (PRB) in its 2018World Population Data Sheet released today.

The world population will also continue to age over time, albeit with variations by country. By midcentury,16 percent of the world population will be ages 65 and older, up from 9 percent now. The percentage of people in this age bracket in the world’s more-developed countries will reach 27 percent, up from 18 percent now, while the percentage of adults ages 65 an older in less-developed countries will double to 14 percent.

Changing age structures—or the share of the total population in each age group—will influence countries’ economic trajectories and how they allocate resources to ensure that all generations can thrive. These themes are explored in the 2018 Data Sheet‘s analytical features.

PRB estimates the 2018 worldwide total fertility rate (TFR, or average births per woman over their lifetime) at 2.4; the global TFR has been declining for the past few decades but it remains high enough to generate continued population growth. The three countries with the highest TFRs are Niger (7.2), Chad (6.4), and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (6.3), while the lowest TFRs are in South Korea (1.1), Singapore (1.2) and Taiwan (1.2).

PRB projects Africa’s population to more than double to 2.6 billion by 2050 and account for 58 percent of the global population increase by that date. The number of people in Asia is projected to rise about 717 million to 5.3 billion, while Europe (which includes all of Russia) would see a decline in population from 746 million to 730 million. The Americas population is projected to increase from 1 billion now to 1.2 billion, and Oceania (which includes Australia and New Zealand) is seen rising from 41 million to 64 million.

PRB has produced its widely referenced World PopulationData Sheet (www.worldpopdata.org) annually since 1962.

Contact: Peter Goldstein: datasheet@prb.org; tel: 1.202.939.5407
Access images and graphics: https://spark.adobe.com/page/73lXWbgFnO7Nz

Police condemn ruthless killings

The Police in Mpumalanga expressed concern and condemned incidents of attacks and murders that occurred at Embalenhle over the weekend.

The concern follows after eight people were attacked and murdered at Embalenhle in separate incidents. Among them is an attack that took place at a local liquor outlet on Saturday, 25 August 2018, when a group of unknown men armed with bottles and firearms entered a tavern and suddenly opened fire, indiscriminately, before fleeing the scene. Police were summoned and they discovered that one of the victims had already died, while four were rushed to hospital for medical attention. Later that day, two of them also passed on, while the other two remained in a critical condition. No one has been arrested yet.

In a separate incident that also took place on the same day, at another liquor outlet next to the Mall@Emba, police were summoned to a scene where they found a 23-year-old man lying face down on the ground with multiple stab wounds on his body. It is alleged that the victim was walking with his friend when they were approached by a group of men who started a fight with them, resulting in the suspects being fatally stabbed.

Police subsequently launched a manhunt and six suspects aged between 17 and 24 were apprehended. They are expected to appear in court soon, facing a charge of murder.

Four other victims, bringing the total to eight were found dead with multiple stab wounds in separate incidents around Embalenhle.

General Zuma vowed that police will work tirelessly in ensuring that those responsible are brought to book and requested the community to volunteer information that may assist police in their investigation.

Source: South African Police Service

City enforcement statistics on course


The City of Cape Town’s enforcement agencies made 12 063 arrests in the previous financial year (excluding warrant arrests) � a 17% increase on the preceding period.

This was one of the many encouraging statistics that emerged from the Safety and Security Directorate’s annual statistics for the 2017/18 financial year.

The Directorate consists of six departments that focus on public safety and includes the 107 Public Emergency Communication Centre; Disaster Risk Management Centre; Fire and Rescue Service; Metro Police Department; Law Enforcement Department and Cape Town Traffic Service.

Some of the key trends that have emerged from the safety and security landscape in the preceding 12 months are:

Increase in land invasions and related protest action

Year-on-year there was a 53% increase in the number of land invasions recorded and a 249% increase in the number of protests. This resulted in a knock-on effect on planned enforcement operations for Law Enforcement, Metro Police and Traffic Services as resources had to be diverted to assist the South African Police Service in terms of public order policing, effecting road closures and diverting traffic etc. Apart from the fact that other enforcement priorities were compromised, there was also the cost of damage to City infrastructure and resources like buildings and vehicles, as well as a financial impact due to overtime costs.

The drought

From a Law Enforcement perspective, staff had to focus on transgressions of the Water By-law amid an increase in complaints from the public about water abuse, but also the very real threat to the city’s water supplies. In terms of the Disaster Risk Management Centre, there was a significant drop-off in the number of persons affected by severe weather episodes as well as the need for disaster relief. Cape Town experienced just one operationally significant winter storm in the period under review and this is evident in the DRMC’s statistics for 2017/18.

It is also worth noting that the Fire and Rescue Service recorded a 10% drop in vegetation fires during the period under review, which is most welcome, given the pressure we were under in terms of water supply.

Instability in the public transport sector

There were numerous taxi-related strikes during the past 12 months that impacted on other sectors. There was also a wage-related strike by bus operators and the ongoing service delays and arson attacks on Metrorail’s infrastructure are well documented. These disruptions took a toll on the affected commuters, but also placed additional strain on the road network and the enforcement staff whose duty it is to police transgressions.

We recorded a 100% increase in the number of overloading offences in the public transport sector. While there is no definitive proof, we cannot rule out the possibility that this might be a reflection of the battle that commuters have had and continue to have in getting to and from work, and the willingness of some operators to cash in on the instability in the sector � with no regard for the lives of their passengers.

Ongoing gang violence

There are at least 16 gang hotspots in Cape Town that experience a flare-up in violence on a regular basis. The Metro Police Department Gang and Drug Task Team, in association with the Law Enforcement Stabilisation Unit, devotes as much resources to these communities as possible, but resources are limited. It is important to note that the South African Police Service (SAPS) remains the primary agency responsible for tackling gang violence. The City acts in support of SAPS.

That said, our enforcement statistics for the period under review are up, year-on-year. The Metro Police Department achieved a 19% increase in arrests and a 39% increase in the number of firearms recovered through targeted operations. There was also a notable increase in the number of public tip-offs about illegal activities. This is particularly encouraging, because it speaks to a growing trust in the City’s enforcement agencies.

Increase in attacks on City staff and infrastructure

There have been numerous incidents in the past 12 months where City staff and infrastructure were targeted. This includes the torching of the Gugulethu Fire Station by protestors. Just this weekend, firefighters were attacked while responding to a fire in Wallacedene.

Criminals are becoming decidedly more brazen and are targeting staff for their firearms. The Metro Police Department noted a 180% increase in attacks on staff year-on-year, from 21 in 2016/17 to 59 in 2017/18.

The result is that we have to reconfigure our deployment patterns and have more officers working in groups to ensure their safety. The physical and psychological effect of these attacks cannot be ignored. An officer who has been traumatized by an attack needs time off work to recover; some do so sooner than others. What this means is fewer officers on patrol to ensure public safety.

Our task is not without its challenges. One of those challenges is the consistent criticism we face from many quarters, often with no basis of understanding of the Directorate’s mandate. There is a lot of good work that is done on a daily basis to safeguard Cape Town and her residents and I commend the men and women who don the uniform in service to the public for what is often a thankless and very dangerous task.

Looking forward to some of the departmental priorities for the current financial year (1 July 2018 � 30 June 2019):

Metro Police Department:

Further training and development of Youth Cadets

Opening of Lakeside training facility

Further rollout of the Neighbourhood Safety Team in Delft

Looking to national government to do joint procurement for gunfire detection

Numerous ward allocations for CCTV and Licence Plate Recognition installations (26 wards collectively invested R5,7 million)

Cape Town Traffic Service:

Full rollout of the Random Breath Testing (RBT) vehicle for alcohol enforcement

Procurement of specialised tow trucks for vehicle recovery/removal

Law Enforcement

Establishment of multi-agency priority committee on protest action

Expansion of the Facility Protection Officers

Training and deployment of the Rail Enforcement Unit

24-hour services at five stations in the City (Muizenberg, Mfuleni, Big Bay, Parow, Beacon Valley)

Volunteer Auxiliary Programme expansion (minimum of 200 staff by festive season)

Dedicated unit for public awareness programmes

Disaster Risk Management

Review of the Disaster Risk Assessment for the City of Cape Town

Assisting Early Childhood Development Centres with understanding and meeting compliance issues concerning safety requirements at these facilities

Continuous monitoring of drought/water crisis

Public education and awareness around the risk of wildland fires in the build-up to the dry summer season

Source: City of Cape Town